Kalshi Sports Parlays Dwarf Election Trading Ahead of US Midterms

Prediction platform Kalshi processed more than $1.1 billion in election trading over the 10 days including US midterm Election Day, according to a Legal Sports Report analysis of TickerTracker data. Elections accounted for about 3% of the platform's totalТоталTotal is a bet on the total number of points, goals, games or other events in a match relative to the bookmaker's line: over or under. volume, while sports events and parlays, or combined bets on multiple outcomes, took the bulk of trading.

Where election trading concentrated

Texas' Senate race was the most traded contest, with $145 million over the final 10 days. The top five election markets together accounted for roughly 54% of the $1.1 billion. Michigan's Senate race ranked sixth with $46 million, and Florida's governor race drew $39 million. Markets covering 345 individual House races combined for just $24 million. The report also notes that trading volume measures the value of contracts exchanged, not platform revenue, and can significantly exceed what players actually stake, particularly on long-oddsКоэффициентOdds (coefficient) are the multiplier a bookmaker applies to a stake if the bet wins. They show the size of the payout and also reflect the market's estimate of the outcome's probability. parlays.

Parlays versus elections

Over the same period, Kalshi processed $25.3 billion in parlays, nearly $23 for every dollar traded on elections, plus $6.1 billion in non-parlay sports contracts. According to GuardianBlock, sports accounted for 99.3% of combo trading from Sept. 1 to 19, even though Kalshi expanded parlays to include election markets ahead of the midterms. On Election Day, elections made up 17.5% of daily volume and surpassed non-parlay sports for the first time, but parlays still drew more than three times as much. Nearly 80% of the 10-day election total came between Nov. 1 and Election Day, yet elections were just 0.5% of Kalshi's record $98.2 billion October volume.

Conflicting growth claims

In an October announcement, Kalshi said election trading had surpassed 2024 levels and was growing six times faster than football trading year over year. However, according to Legal Sports Report, a Bloomberg analysis found that Kalshi election trading in the final week before the midterms was roughly unchanged from the comparable period before the 2024 presidential election. In short, one source shows significant growth, the other shows no notable change.

What is happening on Polymarket

On Polymarket's US platform, sports and parlays accounted for 88% of trading over the 10 days ending Election Day. Politics, including elections, generated $72.8 million, or 1.3% of volume. NFL moneyline contracts alone drew about $220 million, roughly three times as much. On Election Day, politics made up 4.2% of volume, versus more than 84% for sports and parlays.